Get to know RFI
This is your hub for the latest events and resources from the program, including research on the science and practice behind crowdsourced forecasting.
Program news & events
RFI News
- February 2024 INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)
The Blog
- Catch our latest blog posts here.
Report and Alert Archive
- Read all of our reports created for government stakeholders here.
Discussion Forum
- Start or contribute to a discussion thread with other users about our forecasting topics here.
INFER Featured In
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A Roadmap to Implementing Probabilistic Forecasting Methods. The University of Pennsylvania. (2022)
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Project Seeks the Wisdom—and Foresight—of the Crowd. Maryland Today. (2022)
- How Policymakers Can Build a Better Doomsday Clock. Lawfare Blog. (2022)
Learn about crowdsourced forecasting
News Articles
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How Spooks Are Turning to Superforecasting in the Cosmic Bazaar. The Economist. (2021)
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How the Best Forecasters Predict Events Such as Election Outcomes. Scientific American. (2020)
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The Peculiar Blindness of Experts. The Atlantic. (2019)
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How to Train Yourself to be a More Rational Thinker. The Cut. (2017)
Research & Whitepapers
- Reducing Uncertainty Using Issue Decomposition. Cultivate Labs. (2023)
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Keeping Score: A New Approach to Geopolitical Forecasting. The University of Pennsylvania. (2021)
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Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. (2020)
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Studying the "Wisdom of Crowds" at Scale. AAAI. (2020)
- Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments in The Future of Risk Management. University of Pennsylvania Press. (2019)
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A User’s Guide to DeBiasing. Wiley-Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. (2014)
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Six Rules for Effective Forecasting. Harvard Business Review. (2007)
Books
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown. (2015)
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Thinking Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. (2011)
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The Wisdom of Crowds. Anchor. (2005)
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Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely. Harper Business. (2020)
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Thinking in Bets. Portfolio. (2018)
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The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds. W. W. Norton & Company. (2016)
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How Not to Be Wrong. Penguin Books. (2014)
Other
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A Short Course in Superforecasting. Edge Master Class. (2015)
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Ultimate Guide to Crowdsourced Forecasting and Prediction Markets. Cultivate Labs.