The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) is collaborating with researchers on RAND’s Information Warfare Research Team on a series of forecast questions to collect predictive insights for policymakers and analysts concerned with European security and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. RFI asked the team about its efforts and how crowdsourced forecasts will contribute to ongoing research.
Q: What topics do these questions cover, and how will the forecasts inform your research analysis?
A: The federal elections in Germany in September 2025 are an important indicator of the effects of Russian disinformation campaigns, both in Germany and in Europe. We’re looking to forecast shifts in public opinion about the war in Ukraine, attitudes towards Russia as a geopolitical threat, and the German government's response to disinformation campaigns.
We define disinformation as false or intentionally misleading information that aims to achieve an economic or political goal. Tracking the impact of disinformation is inherently challenging due to the difficulty in directly linking shifts in political sentiment or policy changes to specific disinformation efforts. However, certain indicators can help us understand and monitor the effects of disinformation.
The forecasts will provide a snapshot of current estimates one year leading up to the German federal elections. We plan to use these insights as an initial exploration, leveraging forecasters' rationales to identify potential early warnings. These indicators will be analyzed and incorporated into RAND's research and potentially inspire further exploration.
Q: Why are these topics important to analysts and policymakers?
A: As Europe's largest economy and a leading force in the European Union, Germany plays a pivotal role in shaping the continent's response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This makes Germany a target of Russian disinformation campaigns and provides an important example of the potential effects of Russian disinformation efforts. The research is particularly pertinent given that certain regions and political parties in Germany have demonstrated a higher susceptibility to Russian narratives and influence attempts.
When considering potential impacts of disinformation efforts, any significant shift in German public opinion or policy regarding Ukraine could have far-reaching consequences for the conflict's trajectory and broader European security. By closely examining the methods and effectiveness of these disinformation efforts, researchers also aim to develop more robust countermeasures and resilience strategies. These insights could prove invaluable not just for Germany, but for nations worldwide grappling with the challenge of information manipulation in the digital age.
Q: Are there specific resources you recommend for forecasters related to this topic?
A: A few resources we suggest for forecasters who want to dive deeper into their research include:
- Opinion survey data, particularly German focused polls (e.g., Politico, Gallup)
- Open-source material on Russian influence operations, investigations, reports, and social media engagement trends
- Government and public reactions to influence campaigns, potentially including shutdown of websites or domains linked to disinformation campaigns
- Data from Eurobarometer and other reputable international polling organizations
- Official statements and policy positions from major German political parties
- European cybersecurity agency reports for technical insights into disinformation activities (e.g., The European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA))
Q: What questions should forecasters start with?
A: Questions tagged under "Russian Disinformation" contribute to this effort. You may start with any of the ones released so far:
- What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?
- What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
- What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?