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Russia-Ukraine War

Closing

Jan 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC (1 month)

Forecasting outcomes that may result from the current war between Russia and Ukraine.

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Crowd Forecast

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 44

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 40 · 74

13%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 69

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 27 · 74

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Closing Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 137 · 519

1%

Chance

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 115 · 649

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 86 · 501

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 87 · 675