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Science & Technology

Closing

Jan 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC (1 month)

Forecasting new scientific and technological advancements and their impact on society and governance.

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Crowd Forecast

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 34 · 50

25%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 26 · 40

26%

Chance

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 83

24%

Chance

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 50 · 253

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Closing May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 118 · 539

33%

Chance

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 52 · 301

21%

Chance

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 25 · 127

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 41 · 367

36%

Chance

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 59 · 418

5%

Chance

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 96 · 504

9%

Chance