Forecasted Questions
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 06:42PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 07, 2024 06:42PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | Nov 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2025 | Dec 7, 2024 | 24% | +51% | -1% |
| No | 25% | Nov 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2025 | Dec 7, 2024 | 76% | -51% | +1% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 06:56PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 07, 2024 06:56PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 9% | -9% | -5% |
| No | 100% | 91% | +9% | +5% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 12:41PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 12:41PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 5% | +10% | -4% |
| No | 85% | 95% | -10% | +4% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 02:39AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 02:39AM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Nov 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2025 | Feb 9, 2025 | 12% | +3% | +5% |
| No | 85% | Nov 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2025 | Feb 9, 2025 | 88% | -3% | -5% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 11:21PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 11, 2024 11:21PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 0% | +15% | +0% |
| No | 85% | Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 | Dec 11, 2024 | 100% | -15% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 12:37PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 12:37PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 97% | -22% | +0% |
| No | 25% | 3% | +22% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 12:39PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 12:39PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 34% | +6% | +3% |
| No | 60% | 66% | -6% | -3% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 12:41PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 12:41PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 38% | +22% | +2% |
| No | 40% | 62% | -22% | -2% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 02:43PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 13, 2024 02:43PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 30% | 9% | +21% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 60% | 6% | +54% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 12% | +53% | -2% |
| No | 35% | Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 88% | -53% | +2% |