RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.004094
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.274889
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	0.029805
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM	Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?	-0.120864
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.000927
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.007019
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	0.080587
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	-0.069223
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.105529
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	0.023403
May 23, 2023 03:04PM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.000468
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.006118
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.1074
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.153391
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.308218
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.120371
Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.008587
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.00187
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.1855
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	0.106317

Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

-0.004094

Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

-0.274889

Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

0.029805

Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

-0.120864