Recent Electoral Victory: Putin was re-elected in March 2024 for another six-year term. This constitutional reset allows him to remain in power until at least 2030, suggesting a strong institutional backing for his presidency.
Control Over Political Landscape: The Kremlin has tightened its grip on political dissent and opposition, effectively suppressing any significant challenges to his authority. The current political environment is characterized by a lack of viable opposition, which further stabilizes his position.
Public Sentiment and Propaganda: Despite indications of declining public support, state-controlled polls still show a significant approval rating for Putin (around 72.4% as of August 2024) amid a tightly controlled media landscape that limits dissenting voices46. This suggests that while dissatisfaction exists, it may not translate into immediate political change.
Why do you think you're right?
Geopolitical Interests: Russia views Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan as part of its sphere of influence, often referred to as the "near abroad." This perception drives Moscow's desire to maintain control over these regions, particularly in light of their historical ties and ethnic Russian populations.
Hybrid Warfare Tactics: Russia has successfully employed hybrid warfare strategies in the past, including misinformation campaigns and political manipulation, to destabilize these countries. The Kremlin's ongoing interference in elections and support for pro-Russian factions could pave the way for military action if it perceives a significant threat to its interests.
Strategic Military Presence: In Moldova, the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria provides Moscow with a foothold that could facilitate an invasion. Similarly, Russia's military alliances and bases in Armenia strengthen its influence and ability to project power in the region.
Internal Instability: Political unrest or instability within any of these countries could create opportunities for Russia to intervene under the guise of protecting Russian-speaking populations or stabilizing the region.
Why might you be wrong?
Focus on Ukraine: Currently, Russia is heavily engaged in its military operations in Ukraine. The significant resources required for a new invasion elsewhere would be challenging to muster without compromising its efforts in Ukraine.
Western Support for Sovereignty: Strong international support for the sovereignty of Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan from Western nations and organizations (such as NATO and the EU) acts as a deterrent against potential Russian aggression. Any invasion would likely provoke severe diplomatic and economic repercussions.
Public Sentiment: In many of these countries, there is a strong public desire to align with Western institutions rather than return to Russian influence. This sentiment is particularly pronounced in Georgia and Moldova, where citizens have demonstrated against Russian interference.
Regional Dynamics: The geopolitical landscape is complex, with countries like Turkey and Western nations closely monitoring Russian actions. An invasion could trigger a broader regional conflict that Russia may not be prepared to handle.