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Nicolò
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"Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance" - Daniel Kahneman

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Forecasted Questions
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What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 09, 2024 01:25PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 10% 1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive 25% 13%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 35% 51%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 25% 34%
More than or equal to 80 5% 2%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 12:15PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 13% 9%
No 87% 91%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 12:30PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 1% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 12:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 01:30PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 10% 7%
Armenia 3% 2%
Georgia 8% 4%
Kazakhstan 3% 2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 01:45PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 13, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 22% Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025 Feb 13, 2025 4%
No 78% Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025 Feb 13, 2025 96%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 13, 2024 12:12PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 45% 34%
No 55% 66%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 13, 2024 12:17PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 98% 97%
No 2% 3%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 13, 2024 12:26PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025 Dec 13, 2024 0%
No 99% Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025 Dec 13, 2024 100%
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