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Nicolò
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"Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance" - Daniel Kahneman

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 12, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 12, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 12, 2024 09:08PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 Oct 12, 2024 0%
No 99% Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 Oct 12, 2024 100%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 12, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 93% 96%
No 7% 4%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 15, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 1% 0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 35% 22%
More than or equal to 28% 64% 77%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 15, 2024 09:18PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 13% 11%
No 87% 89%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 15, 2024 09:18PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 12% 7%
Armenia 2% 1%
Georgia 10% 3%
Kazakhstan 3% 1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 09:22AM UTC
(16 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 3%
No 85% Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 97%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 30, 2024 09:54AM UTC
(16 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 14% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 5%
No 86% Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 Dec 30, 2024 95%
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