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A recent survey shows 2/3 of Germans are worried about Russia invading other European countries. [1]

In another opinion survey [2]:

• 51% of Germans believe there is a rather high risk of armed conflict on EU territory in the coming years
• 71% think the world is less safe since the election of Trump
• 54% believe Trump is an enemy of Europe

Finally,

BBC - German security officials say they are carefully examining possible indications of foreign finance or influence in a series of attacks in German cities in the past year. [3]

Even without a definitive confirmation, this is sufficient to instill doubt in the minds of many and change their perception of Russia.

All these news items suggest the Germans' perceived threat posed by Russia isn't diminishing, and it's quite likely that it has increased following the re-election of Trump.

[1] DW - Germany: Far-right AfD rises in the polls

[2] In the face of war and Trump, taking the measure of European public opinion

[3] BBC - Germany wary of claims Russian influence behind attacks

I'm adjusting my prediction to account for the data from the latest data about the full month of March. 8 cases have been reported, which is about on par with the average of the past few months.

While researching another question, I came across the linked article, detailing how the least informed people in Germany are those who get their news from sources other than traditional news articles. 

If spreading disinformation through platforms such as TikTok, X, or YouTube is more effective than writing more traditional news items, then Russian campaigns might focus on those. If that's the case, it would be possible to see the number of reported disinformation cases declining while Russian propaganda escalates elsewhere online.

Reuters - Researchers have warned that foreign actors, especially Russia, are actively seeding popular social media platforms with disinformation designed to advance their agenda

A couple of examples:

• 57% of German newspaper readers and 56.5% of public TV viewers fully agreed that China was a dictatorship, only 28.1% of those who got news from TikTok did so

• 40.2% of national newspaper readers fully agreed it was important the West backed Ukraine against Russia's invasion, only 13.6% of TikTok users did so. 

TikTok users were also less likely than consumers of traditional media to believe China and Russia spread false information and more likely to believe the German government did so.

[1] Reuters - German TikTokers like China, Russia more, poll shows 

A recent Europol report [1] highlights how Russia is increasingly adopting hybrid threat actors such as criminal gangs to destabilise the functioning of the EU and its member states.

The Guardian - Europol found that criminal networks “increasingly operate as proxies in service of hybrid threat actors” in a cooperation that has mutual benefits.

This “shadow alliance” allows Russia to use criminal networks in an ad hoc fashion, “leveraging each other’s resources, expertise, and protection to achieve their objectives”. [2]

In the same news article, there was an official report of a recent cyberattack on a Polish hospital, which apparently interrupted medical care. It could have therefore caused a kinetic effect. 

the Polish undersecretary of state for internal affairs, Maciej Duszczyk, said a recent cyber-attack on a hospital which interrupted medical care for several hours was linked to a state actor.

Coming from a government official, I would expect the link to a state actor to have been proved. But there is no other detail online, other than a couple of news reports in which it is not even clear whether the attack was just an attempt os steal sensitive data. [3]

Paradoxically, if the attack were to cause significant kinetic effects, it wouldn't count for resolution as hospitals are not included in the resolution criteria.

[1] Europol - The changing DNA of serious and organised crime

[2] The Guardian - Russia using criminal networks to drive increase in sabotage acts, says Europol

[3] A dangerous cyberattack on a hospital in Krakow. There is a statement from the Ministry of Digital Affairs

There appears to be a consensus that KJU would seek potential negotiations with Trump. 

as the Trump administration engages with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kim regime will be watching the machinations from the sidelines and studying what strategy and tactics are most effective in eliciting concessions from Trump; whether resistance over time will compel Washington to discard its maximalist negotiating positions; and how committed Trump really is to diplomacy [1]

While no interaction between the two leaders is on the horizon, it would make sense for KJU to maintain a low profile as the situation develops. Any highly aggressive action against SK would likely nullify chances for further diplomacy, and potentially even anger both Putin and Xi, plunging the regime back into isolationism.

[1] Kim Jong Un is Watching Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy With Interest

This might be one of the worst possible times for a new test. KJU would risk jeopardizing his relations with Russia, and annul any possibility of negotiating a nuclear deal with the US.

There is much speculation about a possible Trump-KJU engagement on the theme of denuclearization, and NK would hope to gain something in the process.

The inauguration of President Trump’s second term has given rise to much speculation about the prospects of reengagement between the United States and North Korea. However, even if dialogue resumes between the two countries as Trump hopes, it is unlikely to lead to substantial progress on denuclearization. Instead, Kim Jong Un is more likely to try to secure a dominant position on the Korean Peninsula, with few concessions on the nuclear front in the process. [1]

As of today, Russia and the conflict in Ukraine stand in the way of such negotiations, so we might need to wait longer before things get moving again.

[1] North Korea’s Nuclear-Cognitive Warfare Strategy

Trump brought US-China relations to a historic minimum by imposing hefty tariffs on all Chinese imports that escalated all the way up to +125%. It is still unclear how the situation will evolve. Trump temporarily reduced his universal tariff to 10% for most countries, but not for China. The official explanation is that Xi immediately retaliated with counter-tariffs equal in magnitude to those announced by Trump (maybe in an attempt to highlight the true meaning of “reciprocal”). The US President claims: “China wants to make a deal, they just don’t know how quite to go about it.” suggesting, once more, this whole ordeal could be just the nth clumsy attempt to prove his alleged negotiating skills.

Things standing as they are now, a decoupling of the two economies seems inevitable. But even if Trump and Xi were to at least partially scale back the scope of this war of attrition, uncertainty about the future would prompt companies to reconsider reciprocal interdependencies with China. Who would win in such a situation?

Don’t bet on the Chinese economy to collapse. Expect China to build stronger trade relations with the rest of the world: Xi is already on the phone with European and South Asian countries. In this context, China has all the reasons to appear as a reliable, composed, and rational partner, while the US is destroying its global reputation. [1]

Taiwan being included in the list of countries facing tariffs, plus the additional levies on semiconductor imports that could be announced shortly, could contribute to an increase in Chinese economic influence over the island. If the Taiwanese economy is upended by one of their major allies, it might be best for Xi to wait for the crisis and come to the rescue, rather than to force a military intervention.

[1] CNN - The US-China trade escalation has no end in sight. Here’s why Beijing’s not backing down

Confirmed previous forecast.