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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? 0.000574
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.008779
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.182061
    Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? 0.0006
    Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024) -0.00032
    Jul 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024) 0.00464
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? -0.000559
    Jun 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024) 0.02209
    May 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and May 2, 2024) 0.026853
    Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) 0.08376
    Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024) 0.039849
    Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024) -0.000577
    Apr 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024) -0.000181
    Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? -0.000447
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? -0.002535
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024) 0.0
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? -0.02901
    Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024) 0.0
    Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024) -0.000741
    Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024) -0.000179
     
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