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Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
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Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
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The Water Cooler
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Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
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semiconductors
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
0.000574
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
-0.008779
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
-0.182061
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
0.0006
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)
-0.00032
Jul 2, 2024 04:00PM
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024)
0.00464
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
-0.000559
Jun 2, 2024 04:00PM
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024)
0.02209
May 2, 2024 04:00PM
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and May 2, 2024)
0.026853
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)
0.08376
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)
0.039849
Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)
-0.000577
Apr 2, 2024 04:00PM
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)
-0.000181
Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
-0.000447
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
-0.002535
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)
0.0
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
-0.02901
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)
0.0
Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)
-0.000741
Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)
-0.000179
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❤️
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😁
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:+1:
☺️
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😄
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💋
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