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New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 17, 2025 to Oct 17, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 17, 2025 to Oct 17, 2025
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2024 09:29AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-2%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
98%
(+2%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
War has escalated since my last forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2024 09:28AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Time passing since my last forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-23%)
Yes
93%
(+23%)
No
Dropping likelihood due to recent action
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 24, 2024 04:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-3%)
Yes
Jun 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2024
96%
(+3%)
No
Jun 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2024
War continues
Files