RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.040536
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.000004
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.013549
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.014387
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.061638
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.000034
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.001603
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.001939
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.004009
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.025108
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	-0.000108
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	-0.001823
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.000266
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.001848
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	-0.00047
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.007776
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?	-0.009775
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	-0.009388
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	-0.003501
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	0.076198

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