16th
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Akkete

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo? -0.056978
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record? -0.00579
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces? 0.010046
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? 0.015151
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? 0.009119
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? -0.027716
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? -0.004922
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000022
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.019013
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? 0.003478
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.066328
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.000722
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.000428
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) 0.000442
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.0002
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.003607
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.176561
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.000181
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.131607
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia? -0.073712
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