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29th
Accuracy Rank
Akkete
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2024 Season
2020 Season
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2023 Season
2022 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
Biotechnology and Biomedical Capabilities
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
-0.005214
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
0.030819
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)
-0.094161
Jan 9, 2025 02:00PM
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)
-0.131399
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
0.002366
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
0.028219
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
0.010618
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
0.011583
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
0.009818
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
0.002182
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
-0.031755
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
0.029474
Aug 2, 2024 05:29AM
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
0.037559
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
0.000237
Jul 2, 2024 04:00PM
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024)
0.019184
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
0.001552
Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
0.003031
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
0.00136
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
-0.015358
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
-0.022574
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