I think external pressures will force a pause in conflict
0.256745
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 13, 2023 12:50AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Nov 13, 2023 to Dec 13, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
I think external pressures and more clarity on the situation in Gaza will force a ceasefire.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If information remains largely unclear
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
I think there is a little chance because that greatly limits the amount of news media outlets can put out which means less money
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Kuwait
3%
Oman
3%
Qatar
3%
Saudi Arabia
3%
Tunisia
To many current tensions . I am not sure of any current incentives for these countries to recognize Israeli statehood.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
15%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
No because its too dangerous and it probably take a lot more time to plan.