RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.002267
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	-0.005669
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?	-0.000713
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.003258
Aug 22, 2023 09:00AM UTC	Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?	-0.000164
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023)	-0.000032
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.062935
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia?	0.00048
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?	-0.000177
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	0.035857
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?	0.015016
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023?	0.000163
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC	On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center?	0.005844
May 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023?	0.003504
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.002677
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.016196
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.059174
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	0.138378
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?	0.066724
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	0.538646

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