RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	-0.00025
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	-0.06939
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023)	0.0
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.008949
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.026109
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.042924
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.001941
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.02056
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023)	0.0
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM UTC	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	-0.028828
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.000257
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022)	-0.000077
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	0.002643
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	-0.000639
Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022)	-0.000116
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM UTC	Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?	1.48224
Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022)	0.0
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?	0.009309
Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022)	0.0
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?	-0.08645

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