Confirmed previous forecast
-0.01523
Relative Brier Score
16
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Togo
80%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Rhetoric form Israel, expansion of the conflict across the wider region. E.g., would need a ceasefire in Lebanon before Hamas.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 10, 2024 04:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(-10%)
Yes
Oct 10, 2024 to Oct 10, 2025
30%
(+10%)
No
Oct 10, 2024 to Oct 10, 2025
Updating
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 7, 2024 08:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2025
20%
No
Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 7, 2025
Strong government incentives to encourage AI research. Able to increase compute rapidly through access to energy supply including coal overcapacity.
https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/technology/chinese-ai-firms-on-track-to-narrow-gap-despite-nvidia-controls/
https://www.irinsider.org/home/3xnp2gpxqex6m8x412ufl3b7shpz63-2f29s-6bpp4-4gj88-x3x2m-rtj9w-r3xt9-drt7n-twf93-a5hll-zsw8f-zncbf
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Unlikely
Files
Such an attack would be escalatory with NATO, and RUssia has hands full with Ukraine.