Confirmed previous forecast
-0.322565
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Togo
80%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Rhetoric form Israel, expansion of the conflict across the wider region. E.g., would need a ceasefire in Lebanon before Hamas.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Such an attack would be escalatory with NATO, and RUssia has hands full with Ukraine.