RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 05:22PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	8%	0%	+8%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	15%	5%	+10%	-7%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	42%	81%	-39%	+3%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	25%	13%	+12%	+3%
More than or equal to 40%	10%	1%	+9%	+1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2025 09:26PM
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Mar 17, 2025 to Sep 17, 2025	Apr 17, 2025 09:26PM	6%	+1%	-1%
No	93%	Mar 17, 2025 to Sep 17, 2025	Apr 17, 2025 09:26PM	94%	-1%	+1%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2025 09:35PM
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	23%	53%	-30%	-2%
30 days	22%	13%	+9%	-14%
31-60 days	10%	12%	-2%	+4%
61-90 days	5%	7%	-2%	+4%
91 days or more	40%	16%	+25%	+8%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 11:42AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	4%	+11%	-1%
No	85%	96%	-11%	+1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 11:43AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	20%	8%	+12%	+1%
Armenia	3%	2%	+1%	+1%
Georgia	8%	5%	+3%	+1%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 11:43AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025	May 1, 2025 11:43AM	2%	+6%	+1%
No	92%	Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025	May 1, 2025 11:43AM	98%	-6%	-1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 11:43AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026	Jul 1, 2025 11:43AM	9%	+1%	+0%
No	90%	Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026	Jul 1, 2025 11:43AM	91%	-1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 11:44AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025	May 1, 2025 11:44AM	3%	+0%	+2%
No	97%	Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025	May 1, 2025 11:44AM	97%	+0%	-2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 11:44AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Jul 1, 2025 11:44AM	7%	+13%	+0%
No	80%	Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Jul 1, 2025 11:44AM	93%	-13%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 1, 2025 11:46AM
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	24%	10%	+14%	+1%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	21%	12%	+9%	-3%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	16%	17%	-1%	+1%
Not before 2026	39%	61%	-22%	+0%

Benjamin-Shindel

Benjamin Shindel

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