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178th
Accuracy Rank
BlancaElenaGG
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
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Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
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Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
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Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
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U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.016153
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
0.133097
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?
0.916893
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
0.332648
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
0.223313
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023)
0.0
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)
-0.00012
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)
0.201
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
0.092459
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
-0.201127
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?
0.000582
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
1.276158
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023)
-0.002443
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?
0.346099
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
-0.040656
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?
1.019893
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
-0.008856
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?
-0.000247
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?
-0.003294
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?
0.101057
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