RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	-6%
No	99%	99%	+1%	+6%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 01:58AM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	-4%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+4%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	4%	9%	-5%	+3%
Su-35 fighter jets	6%	7%	-1%	-6%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 11:59PM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	6%	-5%	-14%
No	99%	94%	+5%	+14%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:07AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	0%	7%	-7%	-12%
Armenia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Georgia	3%	3%	+0%	-2%
Kazakhstan	2%	1%	+1%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:13AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	-3%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+3%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 01, 2024 02:35AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	96%	+2%	+1%
No	2%	4%	-2%	-1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 01, 2024 03:36AM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	25%	-4%	-19%
No	79%	75%	+4%	+19%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	2%	4%	-2%	-12%
Kyiv	1%	1%	+0%	-1%
Odesa	1%	1%	+0%	-3%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	10%	0%	+10%	-1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	69%	1%	+68%	-1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	21%	99%	-78%	+2%

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