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BlueberryParfit
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2020 Season
2023 Season
2021 Season
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2024 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
0.00003
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
0.009337
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
0.002907
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
-0.019394
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
-0.003057
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
0.026675
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
-0.001265
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
0.00068
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan?
0.010137
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?
-0.034595
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
0.034505
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
-0.041421
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
-0.010157
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
-0.000484
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
-0.001706
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
-0.03775
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?
0.30399
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?
-0.006947
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
-0.037178
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?
-0.028822
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