RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	0.022566
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	0.00003
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.009337
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	0.002907
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.019394
Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	-0.003057
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	0.026675
Feb 2, 2024 10:00PM	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	-0.001265
Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	0.00068
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan?	0.010137
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?	-0.034595
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.034505
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?	-0.041421
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	-0.010157
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000484
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	-0.001706
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	-0.03775
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?	0.30399
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.006947
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	-0.037178

Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

0.022566

Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

0.00003

Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

0.009337

Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

0.002907