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Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
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New Prediction
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(-1%)
2023 Q4
0%
(-1%)
2024 Q1
0%
(-2%)
2024 Q2
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-35%)
Yes
80%
(+35%)
No
Update.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-9%)
Yes
95%
(+9%)
No
Update.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Update.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-29%)
Yes
Update.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
Update.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
Update.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5%
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
95%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Confirmed previous forecast
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