Update.
-1.023748
Relative Brier Score
523
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 708 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 277 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(-1%)
2023 Q4
0%
(-1%)
2024 Q1
0%
(-2%)
2024 Q2
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-35%)
Yes
80%
(+35%)
No
Update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-9%)
Yes
95%
(+9%)
No
Update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-29%)
Yes
Update.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
Update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
Update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 5%
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
95%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files