Brad_G

@Brad_G To get to Odesa, Russian troops would need to cross the swamps and the Dnipro river to get to Kherson. Kherson had a pre-2022 invasion population of 289k. Then they would need to proceed to Mykolaiv, a city with a pre 2022 invasion population of 486k and split by a wide river with only one bridge crossing. There is one more major bridge/water crossing north of Kobleve, then some small villages. The total distance is about 205km or 127 miles. Going north and around would nearly double the distance. As a comparison for cities/villages that Russia eventually captures, Bakhmut had a pre-invasion population of 73K and took 10.5 months to capture. Avdiivka had a pre-invasion population of 32k and took 4 months to capture. 

Ukraine is now receiving substantial military aid from the US and European allies. Ukraine does have a serious shortage of soldiers and is only now starting to reform the laws to conscript more people. Russia is willing to use human wave assaults and has been losing more than one thousand soldiers a day to death and serious injury in their moves in the Kharkiv oblast. On the other hand, Ukraine is successfully targeting refineries and fuel depots on Russian territory. Supply chain and logistics are likely to be a problem even if Russia gains the upper hand in fighting. 

Odesa is 15-20 miles from the Republic of Moldova. Moldova doesn't have a credible military but Romania has pledged to defend them. The President of Moldova is a dual Moldovan and Romanian citizen, as are 1,3 million other Moldovans in a country with a population of <2.6 million people. Romania is a NATO member and has "more than 3,000 US troops". The "more than" might be telling. Romania, Poland, and the Baltic countries are unlikely to want to wait for Russia to get within 20 miles of the border of the Republic of Moldova before providing a massive increase in assistance. Russia no longer has a navy that can function west of Crimea, or even Novorossiysk. Odesa is well defended for a sea attack even though it is not a realistic route now. The Russians lost two more ships in Crimea yesterday. A Russian ground assault on Odesa in the next 7.3 months would mean that Ukraine had collapsed and the neighboring countries had given up. Russia can and will continue to attack Odesa with missiles. I live in Romania, have been in Moldova in the last year, and am in touch with diplomats who served in Odesa. 

Kharkiv is much more likely. It is very close to the pre-invasion border of Russia and there aren't any pro-Ukrainian countries nearby.