65th
Accuracy Rank

Brad_G

Bradley
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-0.062399

Relative Brier Score

30

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Forecasts 0 0 30 30 30
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 0 18 18 18
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 Definitions
New Prediction

Odds are Russia is going to try something at some point right

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ScottEastman
made a comment:

@Brad_G To get to Odesa, Russian troops would need to cross the swamps and the Dnipro river to get to Kherson. Kherson had a pre-2022 invasion population of 289k. Then they would need to proceed to Mykolaiv, a city with a pre 2022 invasion population of 486k and split by a wide river with only one bridge crossing. There is one more major bridge/water crossing north of Kobleve, then some small villages. The total distance is about 205km or 127 miles. Going north and around would nearly double the distance. As a comparison for cities/villages that Russia eventually captures, Bakhmut had a pre-invasion population of 73K and took 10.5 months to capture. Avdiivka had a pre-invasion population of 32k and took 4 months to capture. 


Ukraine is now receiving substantial military aid from the US and European allies. Ukraine does have a serious shortage of soldiers and is only now starting to reform the laws to conscript more people. Russia is willing to use human wave assaults and has been losing more than one thousand soldiers a day to death and serious injury in their moves in the Kharkiv oblast. On the other hand, Ukraine is successfully targeting refineries and fuel depots on Russian territory. Supply chain and logistics are likely to be a problem even if Russia gains the upper hand in fighting. 


Odesa is 15-20 miles from the Republic of Moldova. Moldova doesn't have a credible military but Romania has pledged to defend them. The President of Moldova is a dual Moldovan and Romanian citizen, as are 1,3 million other Moldovans in a country with a population of <2.6 million people. Romania is a NATO member and has "more than 3,000 US troops". The "more than" might be telling. Romania, Poland, and the Baltic countries are unlikely to want to wait for Russia to get within 20 miles of the border of the Republic of Moldova before providing a massive increase in assistance. Russia no longer has a navy that can function west of Crimea, or even Novorossiysk. Odesa is well defended for a sea attack even though it is not a realistic route now. The Russians lost two more ships in Crimea yesterday. A Russian ground assault on Odesa in the next 7.3 months would mean that Ukraine had collapsed and the neighboring countries had given up. Russia can and will continue to attack Odesa with missiles. I live in Romania, have been in Moldova in the last year, and am in touch with diplomats who served in Odesa. 


Kharkiv is much more likely. It is very close to the pre-invasion border of Russia and there aren't any pro-Ukrainian countries nearby. 

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New Prediction

I feel like one government or the other is going to step in

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New Prediction

This is like basically a given, hell I'll do it myself just to beat the odds on this question

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New Prediction
Brad_G
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jun 20, 2024 01:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
May 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
75%
No
May 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025

If only for the plublicity

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New Prediction
Brad_G
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 20, 2024 01:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
May 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025
91%
No
May 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025

Things are getting heated and he's getting older, idk

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New Prediction
Brad_G
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
13%
Moldova
10%
Armenia
21%
Georgia
7%
Kazakhstan

Just vibing it out

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New Prediction
Brad_G
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jun 20, 2024 01:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
May 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2024
88%
No
May 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2024

Middle East kinda going up in flames rn

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New Prediction

I think this will happen at some point just not that soon

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New Prediction

Just feel like this is the move

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New Prediction
Brad_G
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
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Files
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