Confirmed previous forecast
-0.039724
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Aug 4, 2024 05:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 4, 2024 to Jan 4, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
Jul 4, 2024 to Jan 4, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-4%)
Yes
Strictly a gut feeling. It's not a zero chance but it would be a black swan event, such as a sudden health decline or a coup. THe fall of Avdiivka works in his favor.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 05:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
80%
No
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Not unlikely but war in Gaza is the focus right now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The war in Gaza has shown the international community's tolerance of Israel's militaristic actions.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
Strictly a gut feeling. It's not a zero chance but it would be a black swan event, such as a sudden health decline or a coup. THe fall of Avdiivka works in his favor.
Files