the time frame is too short. In the next few months there won't be a major collapse and/or upheaval in the Russian army, this being the primary reasons Putin would cease to be the president.
0.001356
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-6%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 6, 2023 08:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2022 to Jan 6, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
It's less than two weeks left. Possibly there will be a coup or a natural cause of death, but both are very unlikely in the next 10 days.