Bulgakow

It's less than two weeks left. Possibly there will be a coup or a natural cause of death, but both are very unlikely in the next 10 days.

the time frame is too short. In the next few months there won't be a major collapse and/or upheaval in the Russian army, this being the primary reasons Putin would cease to be the president.

Putin is slightly above the average death age of males in Russia. In addition there are repeated rumours that he is seriously ill, including from his inner circles.

In terms of the war in Ukraine, there is a real possibility that if Russia keeps loosing territories and keeps sacrificing massive amounts of mobilised and conscripted men, Russian elites, isolated military groups, and/or the population will grow heavily dissatisfied. Regime change in Russia historically happens momentous and somewhat unpredictable.

However, as winter is approaching, chances are high that military action along the frontlines will slow. With the slowing of military action it becomes more unlikely that Putin will be sacked.

Russia has just began using drones and bombarding civilian infrastructure en masse. This escalation (which constitute obvious war crimes) is already posing serious problems for Ukraine, both in terms of the cost of shooting down drones and in guaranteeing stable water and electricity supply to the citizens. Therefore it would not make sense for Russia to immediately escalate further. However, if the response of the allies is both very quick and very effective in terms of ending Russia's attacks from the air and at the same time Ukraine further advances in the South, Russia might escalate further (or might not).