the time frame is too short. In the next few months there won't be a major collapse and/or upheaval in the Russian army, this being the primary reasons Putin would cease to be the president.
0.001383
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-6%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 6, 2023 08:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2022 to Jan 6, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
It's less than two weeks left. Possibly there will be a coup or a natural cause of death, but both are very unlikely in the next 10 days.