The African continent has seen a plethora of violence and instability recently. I believe this will spread to another African nation in the next 6 months, 02/15/2025.
0.171146
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
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New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
35%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2024 05:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
Yes
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
60%
No
Aug 29, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
China has increasingly patrolled the waters around Taiwan recently, and Xi Jinping also sees that Taiwan is a part of mainland. They have been building up bases in the paracels and other islands, all this points to a very high likelihood that they will invade by February of next year.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Putin has changed the constitution to keep himself in power. He wants to hold onto power more than anything else.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
No, the Russians have managed to kill many my people in the capital city of Kiev and the deadliest attack was half that, 53. I highly doubt the Russians will want a response from a deadly attack that would kill that many people.
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