Confirmed previous forecast
0.001841
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 15 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 1, 2024 02:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(-16%)
Yes
81%
(+16%)
No
Updating in line with crowd given recent changes to relative market cap
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 07:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
99%
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Deferring to metaculus
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Adjusting crowd forecast up slightly based on more bullish prediction markets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Nearly end of year, and it looks like 4.5 might be on the cards rather than 5 as the next release
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Adjusting down given they probably want to focus on board for coming weeks
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files