Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(-16%)
Yes
81%
(+16%)
No
Updating in line with crowd given recent changes to relative market cap
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 29, 2024 07:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
99%
No
Jul 29, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025
Deferring to metaculus
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Adjusting crowd forecast up slightly based on more bullish prediction markets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Nearly end of year, and it looks like 4.5 might be on the cards rather than 5 as the next release
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Adjusting down given they probably want to focus on board for coming weeks
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files