Confirmed previous forecast
0.53038
Relative Brier Score
266
Forecasts
54
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 381 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 58 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 75 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Kuwait
32%
(0%)
Oman
16%
(0%)
Qatar
65%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
16%
(0%)
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Kuwait
32%
(0%)
Oman
16%
(0%)
Qatar
65%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
16%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 11:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Kuwait
32%
(0%)
Oman
16%
(0%)
Qatar
65%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
16%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 11:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
22%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
11%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files