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117th
Accuracy Rank

Carranza

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2022 Season Stats

0.53038

Relative Brier Score

266

Forecasts

54

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 43 15 379
Comments 0 0 0 0 52
Questions Forecasted 0 0 10 7 58
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 75
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Carranza made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
32% (0%)
Kuwait
32% (0%)
Oman
16% (0%)
Qatar
65% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
16% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Carranza earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Carranza made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Carranza made their 11th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 11:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Carranza made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
32% (0%)
Kuwait
32% (0%)
Oman
16% (0%)
Qatar
65% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
16% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Carranza made their 6th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 11:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Carranza made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
60% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
22% (0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
11% (0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
7% (0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Carranza earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Carranza made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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