Confirmed previous forecast
1.233491
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-80%)
Yes
100%
(+80%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Israel is hellbent on genocide. Netanyahu is too popular.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a lot of pressure growing world wide to stop the genocide.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 3, 2024 05:58AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Aug 3, 2024 to Feb 3, 2025
100%
No
Aug 3, 2024 to Feb 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
They haven't so far, and they spend a lot of time and effort posturing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's China. The posturing could turn out to be real.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
He's a dictators. Dictators don't retire.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He dies unexpectedly.
Files