Confirmed previous forecast
1.233491
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-80%)
Yes
100%
(+80%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Israel is hellbent on genocide. Netanyahu is too popular.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a lot of pressure growing world wide to stop the genocide.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 3, 2024 05:58AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Aug 3, 2024 to Feb 3, 2025
100%
No
Aug 3, 2024 to Feb 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
They haven't so far, and they spend a lot of time and effort posturing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's China. The posturing could turn out to be real.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
He's a dictators. Dictators don't retire.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He dies unexpectedly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
AI is too prominent to give up on at this point in time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The war has been dragging on and there's only so many people to kill. International pressure may factor in.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel wants to eradicate Palestine.
Files
