109th
Accuracy Rank

CriticalThinker

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Forecasted Questions

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 11%
No 40% 89%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 90% 97%
No 10% 3%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:02PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 53% 5%
No 47% 95%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%
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