Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 20, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 22% | +38% | -18% |
| No | 40% | 78% | -38% | +18% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 20, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 96% | -6% | +4% |
| No | 10% | 4% | +6% | -4% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 20, 2024 02:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | 5% | +48% | -2% |
| No | 47% | 95% | -48% | +2% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 20, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 20, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 3% | -1% | -1% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |