The unprecedented drop in price would require an increase in efficiency for which there is little historical precedent. The macro environment also doesn't look especially favorable.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The first full sequence was completed and published in 2022, and innovation is inherently unpredictable. New sequencing technologies could revolutionize the process to the degree necessary for such a massive drop in price.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
Following general consensus citing historic trends and continued violence & instability.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
NYT reporting cases at six-month high and no formal timeline given for changes to the policy.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Power is obviously very centralized resulting in a lack of resistance which would allow for changes to be instituted incredibly quickly. All depends on Xi Jinping.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 200
80%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
18%
(0%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-80%)
Yes
Results released
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+5%)
Yes
Slightly adjusting following exclusion of Li Keqiang from Central Committee
Files
Shifting with consensus