The unprecedented drop in price would require an increase in efficiency for which there is little historical precedent. The macro environment also doesn't look especially favorable.
0.008761
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The first full sequence was completed and published in 2022, and innovation is inherently unpredictable. New sequencing technologies could revolutionize the process to the degree necessary for such a massive drop in price.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
Following general consensus citing historic trends and continued violence & instability.
Files
Shifting with consensus