Forecasted Questions
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 12:00PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 23, 2024 12:00PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | 8% | +77% | -8% |
| No | 15% | 92% | -77% | +8% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 7% | -7% | -2% |
| No | 100% | 93% | +7% | +2% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |