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New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Comment deleted on Oct 30, 2024 02:24PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
China likely faces a variety of challenges with high volume manufacturing of highly technical machinery
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(-5%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
92%
(+5%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
Lowering probability to meet the crowd after starting out pretty high. His old age and indications that succession planning is already underway raises the odds for me, and quickly escalating regional tensions could put further pressure on the regime.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 28, 2024 05:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
Yes
Jun 28, 2024 to Jun 28, 2025
87%
No
Jun 28, 2024 to Jun 28, 2025
Starting off a bit higher than the odds of an 84 year old man dying (~10%) since Iran is under a bright spotlight these days
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