Starting off a bit higher than the odds of an 84 year old man dying (~10%) since Iran is under a bright spotlight these days
0.229053
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 28, 2024 05:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
Yes
Jun 28, 2024 to Jun 28, 2025
87%
No
Jun 28, 2024 to Jun 28, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
time
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 03:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-10%)
Yes
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
90%
(+10%)
No
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
Update, following the crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 19, 2024 07:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-50%)
Yes
Dec 19, 2023 to Jun 19, 2024
80%
(+50%)
No
Dec 19, 2023 to Jun 19, 2024
Recent Houthi attacks against vessels seem to have been randomly targeted.
Files
Lowering probability to meet the crowd after starting out pretty high. His old age and indications that succession planning is already underway raises the odds for me, and quickly escalating regional tensions could put further pressure on the regime.