Fargo

Offensive has punched through 2 lines of defense, if Ukraine can breach Russian defenses near Robotyne, they are likely to gain a couple more percentage points of territory.  I still do not expect a break through to Melitopol.

there is no govt with which to have an agreement, and this is unlikely to change.

I think that there is a growing chance that a deal might be struck by the White House and Erdogan to make this happen.  Erdogan is more fixated on deliverables from the US, rather than Sweden.  He wants F-16s and he wants an Oval meeting w/ POTUS.  The WH is reportedly working this hard still.  And the Greek PM is meeting w/ Erdogan at the Summit.  If that meeting goes well--and there has been a deescalation of Greek-Turkish tensions since Greece sent aid following the earthquake, then things might shake loose.  But a lot of this hinges on whether Biden can get Congressional leaders who oppose F-16s for Turkey to move.  

Confirmed previous forecast

10 months is a long time from now. I do not see an immediate threat to Putin despite the mutiny. But he is weakened. If there is a strategic failure on the battlefield or some other kind of major shock (still low probability) this might change. But for now not likely. Of course all this stress could kill him!

I cannot see this in the realm of the possible for the next 6 months let alone the next year at least. Beijing is trying to stabilize their economy and that requires limiting de-risking, ie not kissing off Europe in particular.

Leak that sweden is investigating Bilal Erdogan and today’s protest where Koran was burned makes it very hard for Erdogan to agree. We do not know if NSA Sullivan or DOD#3 Kahl made any promises that would change this. But hard to do so bc Congressional opposition to F-16s for Turkey seems unmoveable at this time.

One of the problems with some of the disinformation efforts is the poorly worded messaging.  It would be much easier to use ChatGPT to come up with campaigns that fit the messages that one would want.  But I'm not sure that META can detect this 100%.  These might be more targeted campaigns toward small groups or individuals rather than mass, bot-driven social media, which tend to be used less these days.