there is no govt with which to have an agreement, and this is unlikely to change.
1.437232
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
4
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Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
I think that there is a growing chance that a deal might be struck by the White House and Erdogan to make this happen. Erdogan is more fixated on deliverables from the US, rather than Sweden. He wants F-16s and he wants an Oval meeting w/ POTUS. The WH is reportedly working this hard still. And the Greek PM is meeting w/ Erdogan at the Summit. If that meeting goes well--and there has been a deescalation of Greek-Turkish tensions since Greece sent aid following the earthquake, then things might shake loose. But a lot of this hinges on whether Biden can get Congressional leaders who oppose F-16s for Turkey to move.
Why might you be wrong?
I'm struggling with the wording of this question "before" rather than "during." My supposition is that IF Erdogan is going to concede that it will happen DURING the summit. And then they will not become a full member until after Turkey says yes. So I think there is now a 50-50 chance that Turkey will accede to Sweden's membership during the summit, but I can't change my percentage because of the wording.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
One of the problems with some of the disinformation efforts is the poorly worded messaging. It would be much easier to use ChatGPT to come up with campaigns that fit the messages that one would want. But I'm not sure that META can detect this 100%. These might be more targeted campaigns toward small groups or individuals rather than mass, bot-driven social media, which tend to be used less these days.
Why might you be wrong?
Not sure META is the place that would know. LLMs aren't really the biggest deal in how successful an influence campaign will be.
Thing is, according to the latest journalistic reports about an "epidemic" of personalized scams and fake product reviews (which, as you correctly say, sound like bread-and-butter for ChatGPT), there is not even a single mention of LLMs: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/85906
Why do you think you're right?
Offensive has punched through 2 lines of defense, if Ukraine can breach Russian defenses near Robotyne, they are likely to gain a couple more percentage points of territory. I still do not expect a break through to Melitopol.
Why might you be wrong?
Friction in war is hard to predict.