Updating forecast
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| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
(-20%)
Yes
80%
(+20%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-40%)
Yes
60%
(+40%)
No
Updating based on more recent reporting.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+40%)
Yes
20%
(-40%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Bibi is said to support the latest deal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(+25%)
Yes
60%
(-25%)
No
Massive protests in Israel for a ceasefire deal.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-65%)
Yes
85%
(+65%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
After many months of the deal being almost agreed to, it's time to recognize that there isn't political will for it. The recent escalation in violence further weakens the case for the a ceasfire agreement.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the current right wing riots in Israel spiral out, and Nethanyahu is forced out for a more moderate PM
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files