Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts.
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Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(6 months ago)
May 03, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 67% | 15% | +52% | -65% |
| No | 33% | 85% | -52% | +65% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(6 months ago)
May 05, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 0% | +3% | -3% |
| No | 97% | 100% | -3% | +3% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 21, 2024 09:25PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 21, 2024 09:25PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 21, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 21, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 27% | -22% | +7% |
| No | 95% | 73% | +22% | -7% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 04, 2024 09:56AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 04, 2024 09:56AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 6% | 8% | -2% | -3% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Georgia | 7% | 4% | +3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 11:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 11:01PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +2% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 11:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 11:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 67% | 6% | +61% | -44% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 33% | 92% | -59% | +44% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 6% | 3% | +3% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 8% | 4% | +4% | -1% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 11:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 11:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2024 11:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 29, 2024 11:13PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |