Updating a little bit more, suprised that I didn't update more in this direction after the release of the '25 report
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Questions Forecasted
68
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 41 | 161 | 68 | 514 |
| Comments | 7 | 43 | 87 | 70 | 135 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 26 | 64 | 35 | 138 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 27 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
31%
(-8%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
57%
(-1%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
12%
(+9%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(-4%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
39%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
58%
(+1%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
3%
(+3%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Updating with the recent rise to 78 in 2025 index
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
Yes
52%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Here are some articles I went through and interesting points (cleaned up with the help of Chat GPT to be more readable):
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/12/16/chinas-military-intervention-in-africa/
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/militarization-china-africa-policy/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/second-chinese-military-base-in-africa/
Target Locations and Strategic Implications
- Gabon is repeatedly mentioned as the primary candidate for China’s next military facility, with a focus on its Atlantic coast.
- Additional potential sites include Equatorial Guinea (specifically the deep-water port at Bata) and possibly neighboring states like Gabon, as well as hints toward locations in Angola, Namibia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
- The notion of a base in Gabon is concerning for the U.S. because it could enable the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to project power from the Atlantic—a region that would challenge U.S. naval dominance.
- High-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., meetings at FOCAC, the Russia-Africa and China-Africa summits) underscore China’s commitment to reinforcing its influence.
- Chinese military exercises on African soil (such as Peace Unity-2024 and previous drills with Tanzanian and Mozambican forces) serve as live demonstrations of expanding operational capabilities.
- Ports built for commercial purposes (under initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative) may be converted or dual-purposed as military bases.
- Reports note that U.S. officials view a potential Chinese military training facility in Gabon as a “stepping stone toward a permanent installation” similar to the base in Djibouti.
- A key U.S. figure, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, has reportedly warned that any such training facility could be the precursor to more permanent Chinese presence.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ultimately, I think there might be hedging done by the West to counter-influence China like in Gabon.
However, the current US admin seems to be focusing on domestic issues for now while also increasing defense spending + non-interventionist isolationism(very mixed signals?).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Updating downwards
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Comment
I'm not sure if something like NotPetya, which spread across the world and affected physical infra in the EU, would trigger a resolution(I just raised a clarification request).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-3%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
87%
(+3%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(+2%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(+2%)
30 days
24%
(0%)
31-60 days
11%
(0%)
61-90 days
26%
(-4%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Another thing to consider is that if a ceasefire is signed when (assuming if) could a more permanent solution/treaty come around? Since this would also increase the number of days since the ceasefire is violated.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(-1%)
Yes
Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025
93%
(+1%)
No
Apr 5, 2025 to Oct 5, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Highly unlikely as time grows short
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some normalisation ties are on the table with Lebanon
Files
New Comment
Recent article from the Valdai Club, a prominent Russian think tank : https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/concept-of-combating-neo-colonialism/
Highlights:
“Russia is prepared to assist its African partners and establish close trade and economic cooperation without demanding changes in ideology, politics, or value systems.”
Numerous African political elites have publicly endorsed deeper ties with Russia, including from:
- Central African Republic
- Zimbabwe
- Benin
- Ethiopia
Multiple Russia-Africa conferences were held in 2023–2025, showing active Russian diplomatic and ideological cultivation.
Files
Might be duplicating but this was interesting how the Russian naval base in Sudan will go ahead.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/13/sudan-first-russian-naval-base-in-africa-go-ahead
Also, obstacles remain such as fuel costs and poor infra at the port:
https://adf-magazine.com/2025/03/many-obstacles-remain-for-russian-naval-base-in-sudan/